It’s Thursday, and initial unemployment claims fell by 3000 to 229,000. It’s still near a 5 month high:
The numbers: New filings for unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 last week to 229,000, but they remained close to a five-month high, perhaps a sign that layoffs have increased slightly from record-low levels.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast initial jobless claims to total 220,000 in the seven days ended June 11. The figures are seasonally adjusted.
Last week new filings jumped to 232,000, the highest mark since January. The increase appeared to stem from seasonal quirks tied to the Memorial Day holiday. Holidays can sometimes produce sharp swings in the claims figures.
It’s unclear if there was any residual effect from the holiday in the latest claims figures, economists say, or if the upturn reflects some erosion in the labor market.
The general economy is showing signs of slowing down, with consumer spending falling in May, with building permits and existing home sales falling, which is unsurprising, given that mortgage rates rose faster last week than at any time since 1987.
I expect there to be a full blown recession in the next 6–12 months.