Continuing Claims Trend
It appears that notwithstanding layoffs tied to rising interest rates, finance, real estate, and tech initial unemployment claims fell yet again, this time by 6,000 to 186,000, (seasonally adjusted, and as I have noted, I think that those adjustments may be flawed since the pandemic) while continuing claims rose slightly from 1.655 million to 1.675 million.
I think that the real bellwether here is continuing claims, which have been trending upward since last August. It implies a slowdown in hiring, particularly with the low layoff rate.
I think that a recession is inevitable at this point, particularly with the latest leading indicators strongly implying a recession.
Also, the GDP growth was down in the 4th quarter, to 2.9% from 3.2%, which was marginally better than forecasts.
I would expect to see a recession called in the May to July time frame, but my prognostic record is almost as bad as my Dad’s was.