Not Bad, But Declining

The September jobs reports has come with, with non-farm payroll increasing by 263,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7%.

The unemployment rate, particularly the U3 that is reported, is really not particularly informative, it is driven by people exiting the workforce, but the the 263K number is a significant decrease from August’s 315,000 increase and the monthly average of nearly 400,000 monthly job gans in 2022:

The U.S. labor market lost some momentum in September, but remained strong, as high inflation and rising interest rates weighed on the economy.

Job growth slowed, with employers adding a seasonally adjusted 263,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department said Friday. The increase, while still robust, was less than August’s increase of 315,000 and the monthly average gain of over 400,000 during the first half of the year.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% last month from 3.7% in August, matching a half-century low that was last reached in July. The number of people in the labor force fell in September after increasing the prior month.

263K is more than enough to cover workforce growth, but not by much, and the people who are leaving the workforce, likely people who have stopped looking for work.

We are likely in a slow down, if not an outright recession, courtesy of a 3% increase in interest rates from the Fed.